Posts Tagged Peter Diamandis

Dan Brown’s Inferno vs. Peter Diamandis’ Abundance: Two Different Views of the Future

It is always interesting when smart people look at the same set of data and come to two different conclusions.

That is what we have between the views of author Dan Brown and Space Entrepreneur Peter Diamandis.

Both have written books in response to projections that we are rapidly moving towards a global population of nine billion human beings, while not having the food, water, energy and public health resources to manage such a population. Brown’s book is the novel Inferno, and Diamandis’ book  is a non-fiction treatise called Abundance: The Future is Better than You Think.

Brown is, of course, the bestselling author of such books as the Da Vinci Code and Angels and Demons. His protagonist in Inferno is the same as in the previous novels, Robert Langdon, a Harvard professor that is an expert in deciphering symbols. Brown leads the reader down a path where the statistics about our coming nine billion person global population and the possible ramifications are all part of the plot. There are even graphs provided.

Dan BrownBrown carefully touches upon many of the “Third Rail” issues that such thinking brings up: Malthusianism, Eugenics, and forced population control. While he is careful to make sure that Robert Langdon and the other ”good guy” characters in his story are on then “correct” side of these issues – he leads the reader to what is at least an ambivalence, if not a resigned acceptance of a radical, involuntary, forced solution (which always seems to echo the Nazi’s “Final Solution”) to the problem. (I would expound further but I do not want to spoil the novel for those who have not read it.)

While Brown has not been a stranger to controversial views in his novel – in fact he seems to thrive upon them – in Inferno Brown has gone down a dangerous path. The fact that he is an effective and accomplished writer makes it all the more disturbing – his views will be read by many and he leads the reader carefully down the path.

While it would not make as good a novel, I wish Brown had read Abundance by Peter Diamandis and Steven Kotler. Kotler is a well respected journalist. Diamandis is an M.I.T. trained micro-biologist and aerospace engineer and, like Dan Brown’s Robert Langdon, has a Harvard connection: Diamandis achieved an M.D. from Harvard Medical School.

Kotler and Diamandis look at the same graphs and projections that Brown does and decided that technology can answer many of these problems. In food and water, emerging technologies and the efforts of the new generation of philanthropists are coming up with novel and low cost solutions. Similar events are happening in energy and healthcare.

Peter DiamandisDiamandis points out that much of this innovation will come from Do It Yourself Inventors and the new tech billionaires who have turned their finances and keen minds towards solving global problems – rivaling the efforts of the Carnegie’s and Rockefellers in previous generations. He also points out that the continuing multiplication of computing power (Diamandis is a Co-founder along with Ray Kurzweil of the Singularity University) will combine with the innovators to lower the cost of education and information not just in the developed world, but in the developing world too. In fact, Diamandis views the coming new billions of people in developing nations as an economic opportunity – as cell phones come on line for these people; they will be part of the global economy.

Diamandis is not wrong in this outlook – one of the wealthiest men in the world is Carlos Slim – who made most of his money in providing cell phone service in Mexico- who would have guessed that twenty years ago?

Interestingly, most of the solutions provided by Diamandis come not from governments but from the private sector. Diamandis himself is trying to take space Exploration private as a Co-founder of a asteroid mining company called planetary resources. In his future, it is private individuals and not politicians or governments that will solve problems.

Chances are more people will read Brown’s book than Diamandis’. They both deserve respect. The fact that two bright men have written books where the underlying theme is the coming challenge of a world population of nine billion means that this will be the subject of public discussion for years to come.

Let’s hope that we choose to go the route of Diamandis’ Abundance, rather than down towards Dan Brown’s Inferno.

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Who Are the Players in Commercial Spaceflight Part 1: Richard Branson, Elon Musk, Paul Allen, Eren and Fatih Ozmen, Eric Anderson and Peter Diamandis

In a previous post we posed the question if Commercial Spaceflight is the next big boom. Then we compared it to the growth of Steam ship and railroad travel in the 19th century.

But who are the players in today’s Commercial Spaceflight boomlet? What motivates them? There are more than most people imagine so this will be Part 1 of a several part series on these Space Flight Players.

So in no particular order:

Virgin Galactic Founder Sir Richard BransonSir Richard Branson with Virgin Galactic. The flamboyant mobile phone, music and airline entrepreneur is taking to commercial space with Virgin Galactic. He already has more than 200 tickets sold for sub-orbital tourist flights aboard his SpaceShipTwo space craft. Flight testing for the White Knight Two (the aircraft that carries Spaceship Two initially) and SpaceShipTwo are under way. He has also built, together with the state of New Mexico, Spaceport America in Sierra County New Mexico. Branson intends to offer orbital flight as well in the future. Branson’s motivation seems to be his spirit of adventure that has always led him to ventures where he could claim to be “first.”
Elon Musk and Space Explorations (Or Space X as it is called). Space X is the first commercial company to successfully launch a capsule that docked with the International Space Station (ISS). Space X Falcon 1 Rocket and the larger heavy lift Falcon 9 rocket in development launch capsules that later splash down in the ocean upon reentry to the atmosphere – reminiscent of the Gemini and Apollo missions.  By having a private company replicate what it took NASA and the Cold War efforts of the Us Government was doing  several decades ago, there is a Back to the Future feel about this enterprise. The South African born but now American Musk was a co-founder of the online payment company Pay Pal. With degrees in both Economics and Engineering his personality was the inspiration for the Tony Stark character in the Iron Man and Avenger movies. Musk seems to want to solve problems that others have yet to tackle – one being mankind’s eggs all being in the Earth basket. Musk has the goal of eventual Mars exploration and settlement. Musk also is working to bring innovative electric cars to market with his Tesla Motors.

Paul Allen and Stratolaunch Systems. The Microsoft Co-Founder and Venture Capitalist (Vulcan Inc.) announced the start up Stratolaunch Systems, together with Burt Rutan of Scaled Composites. The Allen/Rutan team had collaborated previously on Spaceship One, which won the Anzari X prize for being the first commercial space craft to successfully launch and re-launch civilians into space. Stratolaunch Systems will be a mobile  air launched system with the carrier craft built by Rutan’s Scaled Composites, then with Space X (see above) providing a multi stage launch vehicle and finally a docking and integration system made by Dynetics. Allen, considered in the top five wealthiest men in the world, is also the owner of NFL, NBA and Major League Soccer Franchises. He has real estate and philanthropic interest primarily in the Seattle, Washington and Pacific Norwest region. Allen is a Science Fiction and Rick and Roll fan as well as a fan aviation history – he has opened museums for all three. The Stratolauncher, which will be the largest aircraft in the air when ready, has a similar name to the Stratocruiser which was the largest commercial aircraft of its time when another Seattle based Allen announced the aircraft that featured a spiral staircase and cocktail lounge in the post war 1940’s. (William Allen head of Boeing at the time, but no relation to Paul as far as I know.) Paul Allen being such an aviation history buff, this name selection is not likely accidental. Paul Allen appears to being living out his science fiction and aviation dreams together in his commercial space ventures.

The Ozmens and Sierra Nevada Corporation. No, not Donnie and Marie (those are Osmonds) rather Eren and Fatih. This dynamic wife and husband duo took a small engineering firm in a suburb of Reno, Nevada and turned it into the largest government Defense, Intelligence and National Security Contractor that you probably never heard of. Both have engineering degrees and Sierra Nevada Corporations Space Systems division already delivered the hybrid (green) rockets used by Rutan’s Scaled Composites Space ShipOne. They have also already drop tested (dropping the spacecraft from a carrier aircraft) the Dream Catcher space craft a shuttle-like craft they are developing as a people and freight transport to the ISS. They are also involved in developing other space technologies, such as the actuators that power the Mars Rover. Publicity shy and very focused this couple benefitted from the past decades defense build up – as defense dollars are looking to go down, it will be interesting to watch them venture into the world of commercial space.

Eric Anderson and Peter Diamandis of Space Adventures and Planetary Resources. Anderson and Diamandis co-founded Space Adventures which successfully sold space tourism flights aboard Russian space craft and have now launched Planetary Resources – a company developing low cost orbital telescopes with the goal of identifying and eventually mining asteroids. Many heavy hitters are investing in their company including Google Co-Founder and CEO Larry Page, H. Ross Perot Jr., Avatar Filmmaker James Cameron and Former Goldman Sachs Chairman John Whitehead. Anderson is the current chairman of the Commercial Spaceflight Federation, an industry association, and has helped found several space start ups. Diamandis is co-founder and chairman of the X Prize Foundation which awarded the first prize to Burt Rutan and Paul Allen’s SpaceShipOne (see above) for successful commercial space flights.  Diamandis, with Biology and engineering degrees from MIT and an MD from Harvard Medical has many futuristic interests including the Singularity University with Ray Kurzweil. Anderson and Diamandis seem to have had a life-long passion for promoting space flight. Diamandis’s love of rockets goes all the way back to his days as a youngster in the Bronx, NY when he won the Estes model rocket design prize.

These five are just a start. There will be several more parts to this series, as there are more players than folks are aware of. I know I was surprised when I started researching the number of players in this new and up and coming industy.

Note: None of this should be viewed as investment advice. Dan Godzich is not an investment advisor and does not own stock in any of the companies mentioned above.

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